The Halving is Not Priced in, Here’s Why

As a follow up to Nic Carter’s excellent breakdown of the efficient market hypothesis, and PlanB’s piece addressing the market’s evaluation of the risks in Bitcoin, I go through the reasons I feel the market both is very unwilling and unconfident about the consequences of the halving, and therefore sees it not as “known information,” but more a blind gamble.

For diving deeper into the many topics and works that I brought up, here are the links of all those I remembered:
• Nic Carter’s “Introduction to the Efficient Market Hypothesis”—Introduction-to-the-Efficient-Market-Hypothesis-for-Bitcoiners-Nic-Carter-eac03b
• PlanB’s “Efficient Markets and Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow”—Efficient-Markets–Bitcoins-Stock-to-Flow-PlanB-eaco0i
• Hayek’s “Use of Knowledge in Society” [Part 1 & 2]—Use-of-Knowledge-in-Society-Part-1—F–A–Hayek-e43pfj—Use-of-Knowledge-in-Society-Part-2—F–A–Hayek-e444k0
• Parker Lewis’s “Bitcoin is Not Backed by Nothing”—Bitcoin-is-Not-Backed-by-Nothing-Parker-Lewis-e9v1rs
• Hoppe’s “Yield From Money Held Reconsidered”—The-Yield-From-Money-Held-Reconsidered-e2ndqn
• Conner Brown’s “Bitcoin Has No Intrinsic Value, & That’s Great!”—Bitcoin-Has-No-Intrinsic-Value—Thats-Great–Conner-Brown-e43bcm

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